Eyes of India
Break-up of Sick Man of Asia (China) before 2025? or 2025年秋季以前的中国？
There was a time of Soviet Union …and since October 1990 it no more exists in the “Clash of Civilization era”. Andrei Amalrik predicted about the collapse of the greatest Communist leader (according to the Late & Former President of USA Ronald Reagan, “Evil Empire”) of all time who played a significant role in the then bi-polar International System in his work – “Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?”. Thanks to Post-Behavioural Revolution of 1970’s that largely contributed many facets to Social Sciences which enables us to consider many factors to analyse, criticize and predict International actors and system much more precisely. In 1904, Geopolitical Analyst Halford J. Mackinder stressed on China in his Heartland theory and it was during the 1900’s Imperialism which termed China as “Sick Man of Asia”. French King Napolean Bonaparte, in 1803, said on China, “Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” She has finally arrived not only shaking but also shocking the World in such a way that the “Rise of China” is considered as an Opportunity as well as a Contemporary Challenge by whole of the International system. Skipping to Read on China has almost become a sin. China is now not only giving sleepless nights to USA Treasury bills but also reserving its special edition on online/offline International newspapers/magazines wherein “Shining India” couldn’t make hitherto despite Democratic-India gaining Independence in 1947 and China going as a Communist state by 1950. Young Urbanite Consumers in India make lot of fun on “Made in China” term though they’re highly dependent on “Made in China” products without which they can neither flirt nor entertain. However, every story has its end and accordingly it’s the same scene with nations. As we have different ideas, we adopt one or two and then we flip and switch it on to new, thus, in the same manner a nation adopts a particular ideology and with the changing society (thanks to Globalisation) it constitutes a new one to meet all the factors of a Nation-state. This can be observed with the case of Soviet Union which became Red in 1917 and broke-up in 1990 adopting Federal Democracy. Pakistan was formed on the bases of Islam in 1947 and by 1960’s turned into a Theocratic-Military state. India amended Secularism in 1976 whereas Egypt, Tunisia came out of Absolutism recently and is on the way to Democracy. During this Ideological-transition, many states can be also established within a territory using Secessionist tools or some Constitutional measures can be enactedly evolved. As this happened with the Velvet Revolution of 1991 in Czechoslovakia post-Soviet break-up of 1990 which led to the formation of 15 new states in Baltic region and Central Asia. Using this introduction, a god-awful incident in 1989 known as Tiananmen Square protest shocked the whole world. It commenced from April 15th. Can this be earmarked as the beginning of the fall of state-controlled China before 2025?
Tiananmen protest was in Gandhian style organised by Democrats, Trotskyists, Pacifists, students of China and this incident occurred when a Liberal-Reformist as a General Secretary in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Hu Yaobang had a suspicious death. The protest was the sign of high-unemployment, 18.5% Inflation, Milton’s Economic diplomacy which wasn’t so propitious towards China’s so-called liberalised economy since 1979. Protesters were also of the view to have Freedom of Speech, Freedom of Media in China but unfortunately on June 4 around 400 of them were killed and even now the famous scene “Tank Man” shot by Jeff Widener is an unsolved mystery.
Many Diplomatic Analysts and Academicians are of the view that China would surely break-up as it happened with Soviet. Some go by as early as 2015 and some International-Politics students argue for 2025.
The root cause of this upcoming political turmoil would be Land reforms commencing from Rural China. China now no more holds the doctrine of Economist Henry George’s Geoism. The Income Inequality is escalating, thus, creating a huge gap between urbanites and ruralises. The continuous dependency on the State would ultimately hurt the mass resulting into another Tiananmen like protest by 2020.
The ETIM (East Turkmenistan Independence Movement) to the western part of China’s Xinjiang region is not at all proving that much of headache for now to the State due to its harsh dealing with secessionism. China also ranks in the top list of Violation of Human Rights and this would then result into revolt demanding more of Political and Civil Rights which are currently banned by the State.
Population is increasing in China and the failure of the State to meet their needs would also add fuel to the fire in the upcoming revolt. One-Child policy was classical and just two days One-dog policy was introduced. Demographic sphere will be the most important challenge. The State has banned/censored sites which they believe are Westerns hidden agenda’s to promote Liberal-Democracy that can disrupt the Maoist-psyche of the heavily populated youth/netizens.
China ranks 2nd in emitting Carbons to the Atmosphere (next to USA who’s at the first position) and also holds larger share in Ozone depletion. Environmental Philosophers condemn China’s irresponsibility all the time when UNFCCC publishes the periodical report and as usual China doesn’t pays heed on not only climate-change issue but also on Human Rights issue clamoured by USA, EU and Allies.
The recent realist issues at Paracel islands and Senkaku islands are creating Balance-of-Power among Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan (Republic of China), Australia against China. This could be External implications for China as these nations are under the influence of USA’s GeoPolitical strategy.
China’s securing its future by investing heavily on Infrastructure and through the prism of Beijing Consensus since 2004, China’s also developing long-term economical relationship with many African nations (Kenya, Zambia, Lesotho, South Africa, Nigeria, Niger, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, and Ghana), Central Asian (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) and Latin American nations specially Brazil and Venezuela to meet/secure her Energy needs. This is generally observed that by 2020, China would be saving/storing 586 tonnes of barrels of Oil. China has established trade relations with EU with Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg. China is dominating in East Asia through the platforms of APEC and ASEAN.
Too be more analytical, if Kashmir is constituted with Sovereignty by 2018 then by 2022 but of course the Kashmir-border would be enticed with NATO troops as the Pakistan’s disruption with the newly formed Kashmir under Islamic Fundamentalism would bring ETIM more close and creating a new form of regional implications in South Asia as a whole. China’s financial and arms support to Pakistan is that of creating its own Manchurian Garlic soup that will taste like chow-chow during bitter political transitional phase in political system.
The China’s currency (acting as an Export subsidy) devaluates against US$ then by very next day millions are out on the streets protesting for “surprisingly unemployment”.
Taiwan (Republic of China) is too resented with One China format and can also be one of the agenda to break away China.
China does possess the strength of having largest military (Military spending is too very high). PRA does play a crucial role in Internal and External politics but the question is how far the building will sustain when its residents residing in it are pissed off with China’s political system and have learnt about Egyptian style protest more closely. Should the recent survey conducted by Pew Institute on public satisfaction (87%) towards Chinese govt. be relied?
All eyes are now on 2012 when the current President Hu Jintao finishes his tenure and then 57yr-old Xi Jingping takes his chair widely known for his young charisma. The very three challenges Mr. Xi will face are – Tibetan Issue, Depreciation of Currency & Human Rights. Hope Chinese Triads won’t hack this analytical report you read just now and thus creating more disputes between India and China who will be only on Economic War and surely not an Offensive-Conventional war. Stay away from those reports which talks of China attacking India by 2014 to divert its internal political plight … and keep enjoying Chinese food diplomacy!
– Jaimine or Zemin ?